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Awesome New Polling Data Straight from Denver

One of the perks of being in person at an event like the Big Tent and the DNC Convention in general is getting access to some really cool events you can't get to anywhere else.  No, I'm not talking about the after-parties; those actually tend to be fairly lame, imho.  I'm talking about the really informative morning and afternoon sessions where activists have the opportunity to learn things you can't get elsewhere.

Today, the New Leaders Council (not in any way affiliated with the odious DLC) put together a lunch meeting where a pollster from DemocracyCorps (Greenberg) presented for the first time their latest Mountain West polling data, just made available here on their site (PDF only).  It's an awesome wealth of material that confirms what most of us DFH bloggers have been saying for a long time: Obama is our best candidate with great coattails; there is no "Hispanic" problem; the best way to win swing voters is to play to progressive strengths; and John McCain has a serious uphill road to hew in the Mountain West.

The True Measure of the GOP's Desperation

Don't look at what people say: look instead at what they do.  My father drummed this healthy advice incessantly into my head as a child, and it has never yet failed me as a guide to human feelings and motivations.

Sometimes we get so caught up in the latest poll, the latest 24-hour news cycle, the latest back-and-forth rhetorical volley that we lose sight of the big picture.  And that big picture says one thing: despite the false protestations of confidence, the GOP is really, really desperate.

Forget anything you're seeing come out of the mouth of any GOP operative.  Forget any crowing you may or may not be seeing about the latest Gallup poll.  Forget any false humility or concern you hear from this Democrat or that.  Just look at what's happening.

Of Claire McCaskill and PUMAs

If there were any justice in the world, Claire McCaskill would be Presidential material.  So would Barbara Boxer.  As the PUMAs (all 30 or so of them) march around Denver making a far greater ruckus than their pathetic numbers would dictate supposedly on behalf of Hillary Clinton, lost in the drama is the fact that the glass ceiling silently preventing women from achieving the Presidential consideration so far denied to 50% of the population has been far more brutal to the likes of Barbara Boxer and Claire McCaskill.  These remarkable women, absent the latent sexism of our nation, would and should be under serious consideration for the Presidency by the Democratic Party and the United States of America.

Senator McCaskill has been a fantastic and tireless advocate for Barack Obama on the campaign trail, and her speech tonight is yet another example of her charisma, speaking skills, and ability to connect with the average voter.

GOP Doing Our Work For Us--Thanks, Guys!

Today brings us news of the GOP desperately seeking to win the presidential election for Barack Obama.  No, I'm not talking about McCain's giving away Colorado on a silver platter--though it is awfully nice of him to help us out like that.

I'm talking about the attention game.  Every Republican strategist in the their right mind knows that the GOP's only chance to win this presidential election is to make it a referendum on Obama, rather than on John McCain and the Bush Presidency.  Republicans know that by the time Obama and the DNC have spent all their advertising money, John McCain will be synonymous with Bush's 3rd term and voters will reject that option implicitly unless the election becomes entirely about the alternative, giving the GOP the chance to paint that alternative as unthinkable.  

Yes, We Have Problems--But Yes, It Really IS This Simple

Let's face it: McCain has been doing better in the polls lately.  The Gallup tracker shows McCain even with Obama today, while the Pollster composite shows him gaining (though still far behind).  As Sean points out over at Nate Silver's place, this is mostly due to McCain's shoring up his conservative base.

Meanwhile, McCain's lurch toward negative campaigning and embrace of GOP talking points doesn't (yet) seem to have hurt him all that much with independents and moderates.  Yes, it's early: polls this far out don't mean much; most people are watching Michael Phelps, not a bunch of guys arguing in suits; the conventions and debates will change the landscape; the really negative ads haven't really started yet.  Still, it's worth considering how to stem McCain's momentum such as it is, and how best to reverse the trend.

Joe Wilson Talks LIVE Today with Me & clammyc

Bumped - Todd

With the Democratic nomination contest finally over, Democrats now have the opportunity to put the rancor of last many months behind them and unite to defeat the Republicans in November by taking the White House and adding to our leads in the House and Senate.

Among the most important issues that will arise for the next administration is the question of accountability for the villains that preceded it in the Executive Branch.  Yesterday on Countdown with Keith Olbermann, Richard Clarke suggested a "Truth and Reconciliation Commission".  Some would go farther, others less far.

But few in American politics today have as much personal knowledge and experience with the Bush Administration's lies and its mafia-style intimidation as Ambassador Joe Wilson, whom clammyc and I will be interviewing today at 2pmPST/5pmEST.  And topic we'll be covering?  Accountability for Bush and his cronies after that glorious day on which they leave office.

CA-24: The Strangest Election Result I've Seen

Well, one thing's for sure: Democrats are tired of big business and the insurance industry.  So much so, in fact, that Democrats in CA-24 elected to vote in landslide numbers for Marta Jorgensen, a candidate who did not do any traditional campaigning to speak of--including, apparently, not even purchasing the state voter file--simply on the basis of the ballot designation "educator".

The Democratic primary race in CA-24 to challenge perennial do-nothing Republican Elton Gallegly was a 3-way contest between progressive favorite Mary Pallant, the previous Democratic contestant Jill Martinez, and political neophyte Marta Jorgensen.

CA State Senator Sheila Kuehl endorses Mary Pallant (CA-24)

Disclaimer: I volunteer as the Netroots Outreach Coordinator for the Mary Pallant Campaign

Mary Pallant's campaign (which I have written about here, here, here and elsewhere) got a big new boost today: the endorsement of progressive CA State Senator Sheila Kuehl.



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